Taber & Lodge trainwreck drives the sophistication effect

What I've named the Taber & Lodge trainwreck for now:

  1. Prior attitude effect
  2. Disconfirmation bias
  3. Confirmation bias
  4. Attitude polarization
  5. Attitude strength effect
  6. Sophistication effect
    • whereby a clever arguer who knows about biases and fallacies is more likely to end up stuck in their beliefs

Subvert this trainwreck.

#2 & #3 look easy-ish to subvert: simply try to spend more time denigrating supportive evidence than seems natural & make a habit of seeking out contrary sources to learn more about a topic – it's often an efficient way to learn anyway.

For #4: the habit of seeing equivalently-weighted options as an unimportant choice (because they're worth about the same to you). Also known as the habit of flipping a coin to settle difficult decisions.

For #5: taking a dim view of strongly-professed opinions as if a moron is speaking (because this is often the case) – to counterbalance our instinctive feeling that a strong opinion-haver must know what they're talking about.


Never teach people the following knowledge unless they take seriously that knowing about biases can harm you and are the sort of people to take steps such as above. Some of the following knowledge may be unnecessary anyway, since You don't need to know about biases to debias.

  • calibration
  • overconfidence effects

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Created (17 months ago)