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"It's raining outside but I don't believe it is"

It's called Moore's paradox when you say "It's raining outside but I don't believe it is".

To be able to honestly make such a statement and believe it, it requires a mind capable of double-think, i.e. a mind that implicitly believes it has the ability to deceive itself, and yet doesn't consciously think of it in those terms, i.e. doesn't explicitly believe it. Fortunately, here is a case of an error you can prevent yourself and others from making ever again just by pointing it out.

A realistic example of such a sentence: someone said "I believe people are nicer than they really are." It's usually the part "really are" that refers to what they literally believe, while the part where someone uses the words "I believe…" refers to something else, it may be a paraphrased endorsement of a way of behaving, or it may be a Belief-in-belief.

Watch for the words "I believe…". You may have the habit of using it to present a simple belief-about-how-the-world-is, but there's a large group of people who don't, and instead communicate such beliefs when they say that something is a certain way, full stop. E.g. they'll say "snow is white" or "God exists", not "I believe snow is white" or "I believe God exists" (religious profession is usually a case of belief-in-belief). When such a person then goes so far as to add "I believe…", there is a different purpose, as explained above.

What links here

  • *Don't Believe You'll Self-Deceive
Created (2 years ago)

Truths are entangled, so lies are contagious

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave. After the first lie, the truth is ever after your enemy" – someone

"Only God can tell a truly plausible lie." Humans often fail to imagine all the facts they would need to distort in order to safeguard the first lie.

What links here

Created (2 years ago)

Teaching as learning

#autodidacting

Why? How much?

Does it make sense to get quite so much expertise at teaching as some bloggers/YouTubers out there, or is there a stopping point for me?

  • Point: Teaching is learning. So as long as I want to learn a topic, there seems no natural stopping point for learning to teach it either. I mean, they're the same thing.
    • Interesting that we have a cultural meme that says something like "great persons do and the rest teach", not sure where I first heard that but I suspect it comes from econonomics – "if you know so much about economics why haven't you gotten rich off the stock market already?"

      On reflection, the case of econ professors that didn't get rich, seems to me neatly explained by the fact that the market is an anti-inductive environment. (I.e: when you discover a new exploitable fact about the market, everyone else soon discovers it too, and you can no longer profit off it, so it doesn't matter how much econ theory you learn, that knowledge won't ever let you do better than random chance on the modern market because it's full of agents that already have all the knowledge of econ theory.)

      But that's unique for economics. So this meme could be a wrong meme. We do have examples of people who were both great at something and great at teaching it, like Richard Feynman (1918–1988). Starting to teach something (even poorly) seems a valid way to start to learn the thing well (although you could get great at it other ways, like solving a personal problem, and wind up never teaching).

  • Point: what I want to achieve depends on the topic. I don't really want to talk about React.js with people, so that feels more OK to just learn-by-tinkering instead of teaching. By contrast, rationality is a thing I want to talk about. The more of it I can explain, the more conversation about it I get to have.

Ok… so, per topic..

  • Rationality
    • Q: To what extent do I want to learn it?
      • A: …No limit, as with any topic in the end. But there's a tradeoff – smth. else I want to do with my time on Earth?
        • A: You know, I think not really. Seems everything else I want to do is social or hedonic in nature, that I'd still do regardless of which life project I pick.
  • Q: What do I want to achieve, by learning to teach it?
    • A: Be able to have deep conversations about it (& thereby learn more)
  • A: Fight Anti-epistemology
  • A: Bridge the apparent chasm some folk have placed between themselves and science
  • Relationships
    • Q: To what extent do I want to learn it?
      • A: There's some limit. I'm kind of fine with the progress coming slow, as long as I'm up to facing each difficulty as they come.
    • Q: What do I want to achieve, by learning to teach it?
      • A: Bonding with & helping other people.
      • A: This field seems to unusually much tie together being able to talk about concepts, with using those concepts. So basically, a goal is success in my own relationships.
  • #emacs
    • Q: To what extent do I want to learn it?
      • A: Enough to implement everything I envision that my computer should be able to do for me.
    • Q: What do I want to achieve, by learning to teach it?
      • A: Tend to its community (more contributors, higher-level discourse)
      • A: Fun

What helps

To learn better, teach better. And teaching better is not just a matter of absorbing material, there's a… side-game to which to pay attention also.

  • What sorts of life-experiences to try to get?
    • Experience how belief-in-belief and other errors feel on the inside
    • Notice when my mind shoves something out of view, and write down how that felt
    • Face and disarm my own pleasant lies / cherished beliefs / ideas that must be protected
      • 2022-12-09 I seem to believe I'm not prone to pride or vanity at all. Two days ago, I got quite offended when [two friends] suggested that I don't listen to their photography advice because I'm proud, and I had to find any explanation that made it not so. I felt misunderstood, trapped, like when people act sure they've understood me, even though they haven't, and there's nothing I can do to change their mind. I'm still undecided as to what happened this time, but what matters is that G later suggested I have a blind spot and it's true that my self-image excludes pride as a possible explanation for anything I do. I find it unthinkable that I'd fall to such a vapid error as pride, therefore I assume that isn't it, but then I'm extra blind to it when it is.
  • Collect metaphors
  • Collect examples
  • Collect idea-progressions
    • i.e. e.g. explain an idea using a simple case study or two that only partially capture the idea to begin with, then generalize & refine — avoid presenting the refined generalization first as a fait accompli.
Created (2 years ago)

Thompson sampling

Discovered in 1933. Popularized in 2010.

Simple schoolbook A/B testing example: pick which of 2 websites to show a visitor, using a coin flip… in other words, draw from a Bernoulli distribution to decide which site to show.

Thompson uses a beta distribution to weight how often to show the one or the other version of the website to customers. The beta dist has 2 parameters, α and β. Here these parameters represent prior successes and fails (wins and losses), by count. We must of course define what win and fail mean, e.g. when visitor clicks the buy button it's a win, else a fail.

Going about things with Thompson sampling you win a lot of efficiency, your company doesn't lose much revenue while you're running the A/B experiment, since the one shown to work better is quickly shown more often.

What links here

Created (2 years ago)
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